Annual Conference 2020 Rewind: Estimating "The End" of Retirement

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The length of retirement is one of the most important assumptions in a financial plan; therefore, care should be taken that is estimated as accurately as possible. This presentation will explore a variety of topics related to estimating “the end” of retirement, including a review of life expectancy and its drivers, the accuracy of subjective mortality estimates, the actual assumptions used by financial advisors in financial plans, as well as model that can be used to approximate a reasonable retirement period that considers personalized mortality and the probability of success.

Understand how accurate subjective life expectancy estimates are, what objective factors actually matter, and what people tend to get wrong
Identify the implications associated with not considering personalized mortality factors, and the extent financial advisors currently consider them
Determine how to appropriately estimate the length of retirement for a financial plan assuming the outcome metric is the probability of success and retirement is assumed to last a fixed period

David Blanchett, Phd, CLU, ChFC®, CFP®, CFA®

Head of Retirement Research

Morningstar Investment Management, LLC

David Blanchett, PhD, CFA, CFP®, is Managing Director and Head of Retirement Research for PGIM DC Solutions. PGIM is the global investment management business of Prudential Financial, Inc. He is also currently an Adjunct Professor of Wealth Management at The American College of Financial Services and Research Fellow for the Alliance for Lifetime Income. David has published over 100 papers in a variety of industry and academic journals. When David isn’t working, he’s probably out for a jog, playing with his four kids, or rooting for the Kentucky Wildcats.